Backlash for GOP?
By Bob Bernick Jr.
Deseret News political editor
Copyright 2002 Deseret News
A third of Utahns are so upset over the Utah Republican Party closing its June 25 primary election that they say they are less likely to vote for a GOP candidate in November's general election, a new Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows.
"I don't question the poll's results," says Joe Cannon, state GOP chairman. Cannon has seen other private surveys that show much the same thing. "But it's pretty easy to say to a pollster you are less likely to vote Republican. When most people go into the (voting) booth, they choose who is right for them. And that will be the case (in November), too."
In other words, Cannon doesn't believe the displeasure recorded in June will cast Republicans out of office in November.
But brushing off Utahns' discontent over the closed primary may not be that easy.
Pollster Dan Jones & Associates also found that 50 percent of the independent voters — those who don't align themselves with either Republicans, Democrats or any other organized political party — are "somewhat" or "much more" likely not to vote for a GOP candidate this fall because of the party's closed primary.
Even 11 percent of the Republicans said they are less likely to vote for their own party candidates in November because they are angry over the closed GOP primary in June, Jones found.
Republicans outnumber Democrats two-to-one in Utah, but almost all GOP candidates need some independent votes to win, says Jones, who has polled in Utah for 30 years. And alienating half of those independents isn't smart, he observes. "Who knows if the anger will stay strong; the issue could help the Democrats if they bring it back up" again in November, said Jones.
Cannon doesn't deny that limiting the June 25 primary to registered Republicans only — the first time in 30 years Utahns have seen a closed primary — may not have been the best move.
"But that decision made in the August 2001 state convention was not on my watch."
Rob Bishop, who is now the Republican nominee in the 1st Congressional District, was chairman then. And even Bishop tried to talk the grumpy state GOP delegates out of changing the party's constitution to require a closed primary in 2002. The delegates decided it is not right to have anyone but a registered Republican helping pick the party's nominees.
Cannon said before and after the primary that considering Republicans hold nearly every major office in the state, run most county commissions and hold a two-thirds majority in the Utah Legislature, it appears they were doing fine under the old open primary system, in which any registered voter could vote in any party's primary.
"Every Republican officeholder I've talked to — and I've talked to most of them — every state (GOP) legislator except one, all say the same thing: 'We don't want a closed primary.' But we can't change it until our next state convention" in August 2003, Cannon said.
He said an amendment to the state party constitution that would allow "unaffiliated" voters — those not registered in any party — to vote in the Republican primary along with registered Republicans will be introduced and passed then. Such an amendment was introduced in the May 2002 state GOP convention, but it was not considered because of a lack of a quorum and lack of time.
Can Democrats take advantage of the voter discontent?
"There is no doubt this hurts them with independents," said Todd Taylor, executive director of the state Democratic Party. "But it is just one symptom of a myriad of troubles — closed primary, closed caucuses (in the Legislature) and redistricting (of congressional and legislative seats) are part of the strangled, one-party rule Utah has seen" in recent years.
"Even Joe Cannon thinks this was a mistake," Taylor said. "The question is, can they really retrench (and change the GOP state party constitution), or is that just lip service? We'll be telling people it's the Utah Democrats who are moderate, reasonable and open."
Taylor declined to say if Democrats, in campaigning in October and November, will specifically be reminding voters of the June primary.
"I expect they will try to bring it up," says Cannon, whose younger brother, Chris, seeks re-election as a Republican in the 3rd Congressional District this year. The Republicans are not planning any advertisements countering the Democrats' criticisms of the primary, Joe Cannon said. "We're just going to be advocating our own candidates."
As detailed in a Sunday story, Jones found that Bishop and Chris Cannon hold healthy leads over their Democratic challengers in the 1st and 3rd congressional districts. But freshman Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson holds a 9-percentage-point lead over GOP challenger John Swallow in the 2nd District.
That could well be a close race.
And Jones found that 31 percent of 2nd District residents said they are somewhat or much more likely not to vote for a GOP candidate because of the closed Republican primary in June.
Matheson said he has no plans now to specifically bring up the closed primary issue in his campaign.
"But it may be part of a larger issue of listening to voters. . . . You know, Utahns are more independent than some elected officials want to give them credit for. They don't like being told who you can, or in this case, can't, vote for."
